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    Redwood MX Update: February 2025

     

    This Month: Import Tariffs Delayed… For Now 

    Welcome to the February edition of Redwood’s Mexico Market Update. This monthly report identifies key economic and business trends in Mexico, transportation news and challenges, and new investors in Mexican markets over the preceding weeks. Redwood’s team of cross-border specialists created this report to keep you informed. 

    Of course, the big news is the flurry of activity in the past couple of weeks regarding new tariffs on Mexican imports coming into the U.S. On Saturday, February 1, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that a new 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada — and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports — would be enacted at midnight on Tuesday, February 4. 

    Following a sharp decline in world financial markets, along with business and consumer concerns on both sides of the U.S./Mexico border, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum spoke with Trump on the morning of Monday, February 3. 

    In a social media post translated from Spanish, Sheinbaum said she and her team “had a good conversation with President Trump,” and the tariffs would be delayed for 30 days as part of a series of agreements between the two nations. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced a similar agreement later that day. 

    More recently, in an interview on Sunday, February 9, Trump said the recent concessions made by Mexico and Canada were “not good enough” and doubled down on his promise to institute import tariffs. He falsely claimed that the U.S. has a $350 billion USD trade deficit with Mexico, while the U.S. Census Bureau reports that number was $172 billion in 2024, and $152.5 billion in 2023. 

    The future still seems uncertain, especially for Mexican importers and U.S. consumers of automobiles and automotive parts, gas, and agricultural products ranging from fresh fruits and vegetables to alcohol.  

    As we all wait for new developments, why not contact Redwood’s cross-border team of experts to discuss how you can prepare now?  

    As a result of the uncertainty around tariffs, the Mexican peso has dropped and risen sharply recently. As news of the successful negotiations spread on February 3, the peso rose from 21.2882 per U.S. dollar, its lowest level in nearly three years, to its current exchange rate of $20.63 MXN/USD​. Mexico’s diesel fuel prices are up just slightly, averaging 98.21 MXN per gallon in January, versus 96.72 MXN per gallon in December.  

    Cargo theft increased 32% from December 2023 to December 2024 — and it’s expected to keep growing. The day's most prone to theft in January were Wednesday and Friday, accounting for 32% and 21% of all crimes, respectively. Over half (53%) of burglaries occur during the night. The Mexican states with the most robberies were Puebla, EdoMex and Hidalgo, where 32% of stolen cargo was groceries. 

    If you have concerns about keeping your cargo and your drivers secure, reach out to Redwood for expert advice. 

     

    Transportation News and Challenges 

     
    VUCEM Platform Maintenance Completed and Reestablished on 02/12 at 22:00 

    For shippers working to move goods into the U.S. ahead of potential upcoming tariffs, last week's scheduled maintenance of the VUCEM trade platform caused temporary delays and disruptions. The Mexico Tax Administration (Servicio de Administración Tributaria, SAT) initiated the maintenance outage for the Mexican Digital Window for Foreign Trade (Ventanilla Única de Comercio Exterior Mexicana, VUCEM) on 02/08, successfully completing and reestablishing the platform on 02/12 at 22:00. To mitigate disruptions, a contingency plan allowed for the manual processing of customs documentation, ensuring shipments could still be cleared before reaching the border. Redwood customers were well-prepared in advance, and their operations remain unaffected. For more details on the VUCEM maintenance, visit the SAT website. 

     
    Mexican Exports Break Records in 2024 

    Mexico's total exports set a new record in 2024, reaching a value of $617.1 billion USD, an increase of 4.1% compared to 2023. According to data from Inegi, non-oil exports amounted to $588.7 billion USD. Non-oil exports grew by 5.2%, while oil exports declined by 14.4%. Analysts report that the data demonstrates the need for Mexico to continue to diversify its economy. Read on for news about recent foreign manufacturing and e-commerce investments in Mexico. 

     
    Cross-Border Road Transportation Set to Grow by 20% 

    The cross-border freight transportation sector in Mexico is preparing for a somewhat uncertain 2025, driven by the implementation of new policies and technologies. Global economic dynamics, the introduction of new regulations and the rapid adoption of disruptive technologies will shape a landscape that demands innovation, sustainability and resilience. But, despite these challenges, cross-border freight transportation by road is predicted to grow by 20% over the next three years, fueled by nearshoring efforts. The Clean Transportation Program of the Ministry of the Environment and Natural Resources (SEMARNAT), in conjunction with the Ministry of Communications and Transportation (SCT), urges companies to focus on sustainability as this growth occurs. 

     

    Investment Trends 

    While the recent confusion around tariffs is dominating headlines on both sides of the border, let’s take a moment for positive news. Aggressive investment in Mexico continues as companies around the world retain confidence in nearshoring, friendshoring and other trade strategies. 

    U.S. e-commerce giant Amazon will invest $5 billion USD in Queretaro for a new data center. Hi-Lex Controls, a Japanese manufacturer, will invest $1.9 billion USD in a new plant in Coahuila. Balaji JMC Paper Mill, a manufacturer based in India, will invest $400 million USD in Chihuahua to fund a new expansion. South Korean automaker Doosung Tech will invest $25 million to build a new plant in Coahuila. And Nidec, a Japanese manufacturer, will spend $23 million in a facility expansion in Tamaulipas. 

    Whether your plans include building a facility, investing in cross-border logistics or otherwise capitalizing on U.S.-Mexico trade, Redwood is the partner you need. No matter what the future brings, we’re uniquely qualified to maximize your results. Learn more about our cross-border and international capabilities, or let’s talk one-on-one about your goals and opportunities.